Global iron ore markets in 2025 remain structurally concentrated, with Australia and Brazil supplying roughly three-quarters of global exports and China absorbing around 80% of imports. Despite a prolonged slowdown in China’s property sector, crude steel production has stabilised at around 1 billion tonnes annually, indicating that core industrial demand remains intact.

What has shifted is the outlet for that production: China’s steel export volumes have risen sharply, with the export share doubling from roughly 5% in 2020 to around 12% in 2025. This shift is sustaining iron ore demand even as domestic consumption weakens. As a result, iron ore flows are increasingly tied to China’s role as a global steel supplier rather than a purely domestic consumer, making demand more exposed to external trade cycles than to internal construction activity.