China’s trade performance in 2025 confirms a return to moderate, export-led expansion following the pandemic-era surge and subsequent normalisation. Total trade surpassed USD 6.3 trillion, with exports rising 5.5% while imports were broadly flat, lifting overall trade growth to 3.2% for the year.

Monthly data show steady volumes through mid-2025 and a firm rebound into year-end, culminating in record December flows. Structurally, export growth outpaced imports, reinforcing the trade surplus dynamic in 2025 and underscoring the continued competitiveness of China’s manufacturing base in uneven global demand conditions.

The central strategic question now is whether this export strength is cyclical and tied to short-term global inventory and demand dynamics, or structural and reflecting deeper shifts in supply chain positioning and industrial upgrading.