China’s dominance of the solar supply chain is now near-total, extending from polysilicon and wafers, the industry’s upstream choke points, through to cells and modules. This control has driven scale, cost leadership and rapid global deployment, but it has not insulated exporters from market economics.

As export data shows, China’s solar module revenues fell sharply in 2024 despite rising shipment volumes, reflecting a collapse in global prices, particularly in Europe. Solar manufacturing has thus entered a new phase: supply leadership is secure, but value capture is increasingly determined by global pricing cycles rather than volume growth. For producers and policymakers alike, the challenge is no longer scale; it is sustaining returns in a commoditised market.