Global copper demand continues to rise steadily as electrification, renewable energy systems, grid expansion and electric vehicle manufacturing increase the metal intensity of the global economy. Refined copper usage is projected to grow from about 23 million tonnes in 2015 to nearly 29 million tonnes by 2026, while mine production expands much more slowly, rising at only around 2% annually over the decade.

This widening gap underscores the structural tightness that increasingly characterises the copper market, where new mines are difficult and slow to develop and supply growth remains concentrated in a handful of producing countries led by Chile, Peru and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

At the same time, China sits at the centre of the global copper system. The country dominates downstream processing with the world’s largest smelting capacity and accounts for roughly 57% of global refined copper consumption, making it the primary driver of marginal demand. Yet China’s own mine output is relatively limited, meaning the country remains structurally dependent on imported copper concentrate to feed its refining industry.

As a result, the global copper market increasingly revolves around a geographically fragmented supply chain: mining concentrated in Latin America and Africa, processing dominated by China and demand driven by the accelerating electrification of the world economy.