China’s freight data in 2025 point to an economy expanding steadily, if not accelerating sharply. Total freight traffic reached 58.7 billion tonnes, up 3.2% year-on-year, extending the gradual upward trend visible since 2023. Volumes continue to edge higher in absolute terms, while growth rates have moderated from earlier post-pandemic fluctuations, suggesting stabilisation rather than renewed stimulus-driven momentum.

Highway freight, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of total volumes (73.7%), rose 3.4% year-on-year to 43.3 billion tonnes. This reflects steady domestic distribution activity and ongoing circulation of goods across provinces. Waterway freight, at 10.1 billion tonnes (17% share), expanded at a similar pace, reinforcing the picture of broad-based but measured goods movement. Railway freight, more closely tied to heavy industry and bulk commodities, increased 2.0% year-on-year to 5.3 billion tonnes, indicating stable industrial throughput without a pronounced surge in upstream activity. Civil aviation freight remains marginal in tonnage terms, though growth in that segment is comparatively stronger.

Passenger traffic reached 17.1 billion people, broadly flat year-on-year (+0.2%), pointing to full mobility normalisation rather than a fresh rebound phase.

As high-frequency proxies for real economic activity, these indicators suggest that China’s goods-producing and distribution sectors are operating at a stable pace in 2025. Freight volumes confirm continued expansion in physical throughput, but the absence of accelerating growth implies moderate economic momentum, consistent with steady rather than cyclical expansion.