Global e-commerce is expanding steadily, but its centre of gravity remains firmly in China. The global market is set to grow from USD 6.4 trillion in 2025 to USD 7.9 trillion by 2028, with online penetration approaching a quarter of total retail.

Yet scale is highly concentrated: China alone accounts for around half of global e-commerce sales, far exceeding any other market. In absolute terms, China’s e-commerce market is estimated to have reached roughly USD 3.2 trillion in 2025, larger than the U.S., Western Europe and emerging markets combined.

This dominance reflects more than size. China’s retail system is structurally digital, built around deeply integrated platforms that combine marketplaces, payments, logistics and services. As a result, e-commerce already accounts for roughly 44% of total retail in China; nearly double the levels seen in most developed markets.

For global businesses, this has two implications. First, China remains the single most important demand centre in digital commerce. Second, it offers a forward view of where other markets are heading, but without the ability to replicate China’s scale or ecosystem dynamics in the near term.