Global shipping is being reshaped, but the story is not simply one of disruption. It is also about how international trade adapts when established routes become unreliable.

Since late 2023, shipping companies have increasingly diverted vessels away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, sending them on longer journeys around Africa. In the first nine months of 2026, vessel arrivals at the Cape of Good Hope were 87% higher than in the same period in 2023, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal was down 55% and 45%, respectively. A further shock came in March 2026, when vessel arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed by 97% year-on-year, with little recovery through September.

These changes matter far beyond the shipping industry. For Chinese exporters serving Europe, longer routes around Africa can add approximately 10 days to delivery times, raising transport costs and forcing businesses to plan further ahead.

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz present a different challenge, threatening a crucial route for China’s crude oil imports from the Middle East. Across the global economy, longer voyages tie up shipping capacity, complicate inventory management and increase costs for manufacturers, retailers and consumers. Yet the continued movement of goods along alternative routes also demonstrates the adaptability of global trade.

The emerging picture is not one of globalisation coming to a halt, but of a trading system adjusting to new constraints. For international businesses, understanding where goods move, how long they take to arrive and what they cost to transport is becoming as important as understanding where they are produced.