In China Navigator – Q1 2026, ANDAMAN PARTNERS outlines, unpacks and unravels some of the broad shifts and finer intricacies of China’s economic development and transition, as well as the challenges its economy faces in 2026. We include a brief introductory orientation, followed by a deeper examination of key issues and trends and finally an overview of China’s role in the international context.

China’s economy grew at 5% in 2024 and 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, lower than the 6-10% recorded in the 2010s but broadly in line with government targets. China’s GDP growth is gradually moderating, but it remains formidable and substantially above the global average of 3.2%. For the rest of the 2020s, China’s annual growth is forecast to hover around 4-5%.

With growth slowing to more manageable levels, an emphasis on quality growth over rapid growth is evident. The economy is in the midst of a transitional phase, during which domestic consumption and services will increasingly drive growth, rather than capital formation, heavy industry and exports. This transition, however, is ongoing and far from complete.

Getting China right is now more relevant than ever for businesses from around the globe and across industries. China must be understood, and businesses must be clear-eyed and strategic about whether to integrate China into their inbound or outbound supply chains, sell to Chinese consumers, leverage its value-added technologies, raise capital or attract investment.  

We hope this overview provides navigation support and valuable insights towards new understandings of the most consequential economy for global business in the 21st century.

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