Since 2000, manufacturing growth has shifted toward lower-cost, mid-scale economies, but only a small group—led by India and Indonesia—has combined sustained expansion with rising industrial weight, while advanced economies continue to dominate in absolute scale.
“Next-tier” manufacturing economies operate between China’s unmatched scale and the mature industrial bases of advanced producers. Measured by manufacturing value added (MVA), countries such as India, Indonesia, Mexico, Türkiye and Thailand have expanded manufacturing output faster than most advanced peers since 2000, albeit from smaller bases.
The chart also shows sharp contrasts: Taiwan (China) and South Korea combine high industrial intensity with strong growth, while the U.S., Japan and Germany continue to dominate in absolute MVA.
Diversification beyond China is underway, but it is still concentrated in a narrow, uneven set of economies.
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