China’s regional growth dynamism in 2025 is shifting from coastal export hubs to inland investment corridors, driven by investment and industrial upgrading rather than broad-based consumer strength.

In the third quarter, western provinces and inland tech hubs outpaced coastal manufacturing giants. Energy, infrastructure and emerging manufacturing hubs in central and western provinces drove momentum, while coastal export centres faced the challenge of lower external demand.

Tibet (7.1%), Gansu (6.1%) and Hubei (6.0%) led provincial growth. Western provinces continue to benefit from state-led investment in energy and infrastructure. At the same time, Hubei’s performance highlights the rise of inland advanced manufacturing clusters in the automotive, battery and microchip sectors. Tibet’s growth was also supported by investment and tourism.

By contrast, the coastal picture was more mixed. Zhejiang (5.7%) and Shanghai (5.5%) grew above the national average, supported by resilient services and high-tech activity. However, Guangdong (4.1%), China’s largest provincial economy, underperformed amid weaker global electronics demand and subdued private sector sentiment.

Qinghai (3.7%), Hainan (3.9%) and Shanxi (4.0%) were the laggards. The service-led recovery lost steam in Hainan, while Qinghai remains structurally constrained by its scale and industrial breadth and Shanxi’s traditional energy base faced weak coal prices and ongoing industrial adjustments.

In short, China’s growth in 2025 has become more regionally uneven, with inland investment and industrial upgrading taking the lead, and coastal demand-driven engines adjusting to a slower global cycle and domestic property headwinds.