Preliminary data suggest that tariff actions by the U.S. and EU in 2024-2025 have triggered a notable redirection of Chinese exports from developed to developing markets. In May 2024, U.S. President Biden imposed tariffs on ~USD 18 billion of Chinese goods in strategic sectors, followed in early 2025 by President Trump’s broader tariff measures and reciprocal Chinese duties. The EU’s October 2024 anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese EVs added further pressure.

Within months, China’s export growth to Europe, North America, and Oceania contracted sharply (–27%, –28%, and –36% in the second half of 2024, respectively), the steepest declines since the pandemic year of 2020. At the same time, growth to Africa swung from –10% in August 2024 to +21% by June 2025, while Latin America maintained steady gains of 10-16%.

While complete data for the first half of 2025 is still pending, the trajectory points to a structural pivot: China is cushioning tariff-related losses in advanced economies by deepening trade with developing partners—particularly those with lower barriers and strong infrastructure or commodity linkages to China. This shift may mark a longer-term realignment of China’s export geography.