Global trade in 2024–2025 is marked by slower growth and rising fragmentation, as geopolitical tensions and industrial policy reshape flows.

With the U.S. and EU tightening tariffs, China is re-routing more exports toward Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

As China’s exports to the U.S. and EU fall due to tariffs, Africa has become a key growth market. Preliminary 2025 data show strong China export growth to Africa (+21.6% YoY) and steady flows to Latin America, while exports to Europe, North America and Oceania have contracted sharply.

Chinese exports to Africa surged in H1 2025, especially in a few leading importing markets (e.g., Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Angola). 

South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt have consistently been the largest African importers from China. Despite a decline of 5% from 2000, South Africa still remains the largest African importer from China, accounting for 13% of total African imports from China in 2024.

In H1 2025, Cote d’Ivoire (50%), Nigeria (33%) and Tanzania (24%) have growth rates for China imports vastly outperforming the African 5-month YoY growth rate (18%), indicating that China’s exports to the continent are finding new avenues for growth. Smaller, less developed economies
(e.g., Eritrea, Sudan, Malawi, Mali, Angola, Guinea) have China import growth rates in excess of 60%.

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