Global production of key transition metals expanded substantially in 2025, led by strong gains in copper (+26%) and lithium (+21%), with more moderate increases in graphite, cobalt and nickel, while manganese and rare earths remained broadly flat. The energy transition is clearly scaling in volume terms.

Yet the structure of supply changed little: in most markets, the top three producers still control between 70% and 90% of global output. China remains dominant across multiple critical materials, the DRC anchors cobalt supply and Indonesia continues to shape the nickel market.

In other words, more metal is coming to market, but it is still coming from a narrow set of economies. For global supply chains, that means exposure to political risk, resource nationalism and strategic leverage remains structurally embedded in the transition metals complex.