Since 2020, supply-chain stress has largely reacted to demand shocks rather than driven them, suggesting that logistics disruptions amplify risk but rarely dictate growth outcomes.
Should you change strategy because supply chains look stressed again? The World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Stress Index captures pressure in container shipping capacity, while world trade growth reflects underlying demand. Since 2020, trade cycles have been driven by demand, with supply-chain stress reacting to demand surges and corrections rather than leading them. Elevated stress has coincided with strong or stabilising trade, not demand collapses.
For CEOs, the implication is clear: supply-chain stress signals higher execution and cost risk, not a change in growth direction. Overreacting to stress risks misreading the cycle; under-reacting to demand risks missing it altogether.
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