China’s export engine has moved through a clear post-pandemic cycle: surge, normalisation and renewed expansion, without losing structural momentum. Total exports rose from USD 2.6 trillion in 2020 to USD 3.6 trillion in 2022, moderating in 2023 as global goods demand cooled, then regaining traction to reach a new nominal high of USD 3.8 trillion in 2025. The 2020-2025 CAGR of 7.8% underscores that the broader trend remains upward despite cyclical volatility.

The more important shift, however, is geographic. In 2020, China’s export profile was still heavily oriented toward advanced Western economies and traditional Asian hubs. By 2025, the hierarchy has subtly but meaningfully evolved. The U.S. remains China’s largest single market, but exports to the U.S. declined marginally over the five-year period. In contrast, India (+15% CAGR), Vietnam (+12%), Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Mexico have risen sharply in the rankings. Several ASEAN economies now absorb incremental Chinese supply as firms diversify production networks and regional trade deepens.

This is not a dramatic abandonment of established markets (Japan, South Korea and Germany remain core partners), but rather a rebalancing at the margin. Growth is increasingly Asia-led, with emerging and diversification markets accounting for a larger share of incremental export gains. In short, China’s export machine is not retreating; it is rotating. The structure of demand is shifting toward Asia and supply-chain intermediaries, even as aggregate export volumes continue to expand.