China’s demographic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with implications that extend far beyond its borders. After decades of population growth, China’s population has declined for four consecutive years, reaching 1.405 billion in 2025.

At the same time, the country is growing older. The number of elderly people relative to the working-age population has nearly doubled since 2011, reaching roughly the same level as child dependency in 2025.

Put simply, China is moving toward a future in which fewer working-age people will support more retirees. By 2050, its working-age population is projected to decline by 273 million, from 987 million today to 714 million. This presents challenges for pensions, healthcare and labour supply, but it also reflects decades of rising life expectancy and improving living standards.

China’s demographic transition will create new opportunities in healthcare, elderly care, automation and technologies that help businesses achieve more with fewer workers. For the global economy, the significance is considerable: China will remain one of the world’s largest consumer markets and industrial economies, but its workforce, spending patterns and economic priorities will increasingly reflect the needs of an older society. How China adapts to this transition will help shape global demand, investment and trade for decades to come.