Given the global agricultural production and trade data presented above, the following are preliminary strategic implications for agribusiness executives in logistics, food processing, retail and trade industries to navigate the evolving supply chain landscape in 2025 and beyond.

• Global food supply is highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks: Several key staple crops are concentrated in a small number of countries, such as soybeans (Brazil, U.S.), wheat (China, India, Russia) and rice (China, India). These concentrations expose the entire system to geopolitical shocks and trade barriers in a handful of countries.

Implications: Executives must assume that regional disruptions will impact the global supply of key agricultural commodities, necessitating more robust sourcing diversification and scenario planning.

• Rising import dependency in Africa and Asia creates risk and potentially great rewards: Asia is a net-importing region for all food categories, and Africa for all categories except fruit & vegetables. This overwhelming import dependency requires more extended and fragile supply chains, which are especially vulnerable to rising freight costs, port disruptions and currency volatility. At the same time, this import dependency opens up historic market opportunities for agribusiness executives who can reliably serve growing populations in Africa and Asia with their rising demand for protein, convenience, safety and traceability.

Implications: Risk is structural, but reward can be exponential for agricultural suppliers that invest not just in supply, but in resilient, regionalised and value-added delivery systems for Asia and Africa.

• Shifting trade routes and strategic alliances demand a new playbook: Important bilateral agricultural trade flows are shifting, notably China replacing U.S. with Brazilian supply of soybeans, and the decrease in Russia-Europe trade from 2022. Agricultural trade is shifting from static trade routes to more dynamic, multi-corridor trade ecosystems that can provide suppliers and traders with the means to reach the next billion consumers.

Implications: Executives must reduce exposure to regions with trade tensions, and increase direct trade corridors with emerging exporters and importers in countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Türkiye, setting up in-country logistics and trade facilitators with regional hubs or partner facilities.

• Technology gaps and market entry barriers in Africa require a strategic approach: Africa is one of the most significant untapped agricultural demand regions with growing populations, rising urbanisation and increasing food import dependency. However, lagging productivity in parts of Africa means that market expansion will depend on significant investment to bridge the technology adoption gap, and dealing with other challenges such as fragmented markets, inconsistent regulation and logistical and infrastructure constraints.

Implications: Africa’s agricultural opportunity is real, but only for executives willing to employ a long-term strategy to invest, localise and partner in building farming ecosystems.

• Climate volatility is now a fundamental variable for agricultural production and trade: The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts, heatwaves and floods, particularly in key food-producing countries such as Brazil and India, pose a direct and potentially debilitating threat to crop production and trade.

Implications: Executives must shift from reactive to resilience-based strategies, including investing in climate-linked procurement systems and climate risk assessments.

• Recent trade trends highlight changing consumer preferences: Sustained high global demand for meat, fruit, beverages and processed food preparations illustrates a transition towards higher-value, convenience-oriented consumer preferences. High demand for these products by middle-class consumers in Asia, the Middle East and Africa provides a strategic opening for executives to move up the value chain, enter premium segments and build regional dominance.

Implications: Food processing, retail and logistics executives must align sourcing and product development with value-added and perishable segments, and upgrade cold chain and traceability infrastructure. Other essential steps will be to localise processing and packaging near demand hubs, invest in premium branding and certifications and establish long-term offtake agreements with retailers.